Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +100 SAC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +22 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -0.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -0.4 (+21.6) | 135.8 (-3.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -0.9 (+21.1) | 135.5 (-3.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -0.6 (+21.4) | 138.1 (-6.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -0.4 (+21.6) | 138.8 (-6.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | NAU 79 – 74 SAC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SAC 83 – 69 NAU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAU 65 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NAU 77 – 53 SAC |
| Feb 16, 2024 | NAU 73 – 58 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#256) | -2.1 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#316) | -0.37 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#306) | -0.48 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#321) | 0.479 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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