Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -360 SAC +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -10.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -8.8 (+15.2) | 131.6 (-1.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -7.6 (+16.4) | 130.9 (-0.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -8.7 (+15.3) | 132.7 (-2.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -9.1 (+14.9) | 132.8 (-2.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | NAU 79 – 74 SAC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SAC 83 – 69 NAU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAU 65 – 61 SAC |
| Feb 16, 2024 | NAU 73 – 58 SAC |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAU 70 – 61 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-11 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#252) | -12.3 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#257) | -2.72 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#259) | -3.90 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#302) | 0.349 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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