Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -135 SAC +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SAC -0.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -0.2 (+5.2) | 152.1 (+0.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.0 (+4.0) | 149.7 (+3.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -0.1 (+5.1) | 150.0 (+3.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -0.3 (+5.3) | 150.6 (+2.4) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | SAC 83 – 69 NAU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAU 65 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NAU 77 – 53 SAC |
| Feb 16, 2024 | NAU 73 – 58 SAC |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAU 70 – 61 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 83.6 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#298) | -5.6 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#307) | -0.95 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#297) | -1.08 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#348) | 0.443 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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