Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SAC +150 NAU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -3.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -5.3 (+1.3) | 135.8 (-9.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -4.7 (+0.7) | 134.9 (-8.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -4.2 (+0.2) | 134.2 (-8.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -4.3 (+0.3) | 135.8 (-9.8) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | NAU 79 – 74 SAC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SAC 83 – 69 NAU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NAU 77 – 53 SAC |
| Feb 16, 2024 | NAU 73 – 58 SAC |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAU 70 – 61 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#336) | -4.9 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#349) | -0.93 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.42 (#355) | -1.13 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#355) | 0.440 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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