Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | SAC -138 NAU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +15 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SAC -3.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -0.8 (-15.8) | 133.4 (-2.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -1.5 (-16.5) | 130.8 (+0.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -0.6 (-15.6) | 132.3 (-1.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -1.1 (-16.1) | 132.7 (-1.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | NAU 79 – 74 SAC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SAC 83 – 69 NAU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAU 65 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NAU 77 – 53 SAC |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAU 70 – 61 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-24 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#315) | -9.7 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#325) | -0.56 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#328) | -0.97 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#329) | 0.473 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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