Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UND -150 DEN +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UND -2.3 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -1.3 (+21.7) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -1.2 (+21.8) | 146.5 (+2.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -1.2 (+21.8) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -1.3 (+21.7) | 148.9 (+0.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#305) | -6.6 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#297) | -0.78 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#284) | -1.21 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#315) | 0.438 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.