Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -275 ARST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -9.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -7.2 (-3.2) | 128.9 (-0.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -7.8 (-3.8) | 125.0 (+3.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -6.6 (-2.6) | 129.0 (-1.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -6.8 (-2.8) | 128.0 (+0.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-10 | 10-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#207) | -8.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#213) | -1.46 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#213) | -1.87 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#222) | 0.409 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.