Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | TNST +125 SEMO -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +20 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -0.1 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -0.1 (+20.1) | 158.6 (-8.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.2 (+19.8) | 156.5 (-6.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -0.6 (+20.6) | 156.5 (-6.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -0.6 (+20.6) | 157.7 (-7.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#300) | -4.1 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#298) | -0.67 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#317) | -0.97 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#311) | 0.487 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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