Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +333 LIP -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +12 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -6.6 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -5.9 (-6.1) | 154.2 (+19.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -6.1 (-5.9) | 154.1 (+19.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -5.5 (-6.5) | 152.2 (+21.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -5.6 (-6.4) | 153.5 (+20.5) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | CARK 86 – 78 LIP |
| Mar 4, 2025 | LIP 84 – 66 CARK |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LIP 78 – 60 CARK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LIP 68 – 55 CARK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LIP 85 – 68 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#335) | -0.5 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#281) | -0.07 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#305) | -0.10 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#280) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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