Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USM -167 UL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | USM -5.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -5.4 (+5.6) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -2.7 (+8.3) | 145.2 (+7.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -5.9 (+5.1) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -5.9 (+5.1) | 147.3 (+5.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USM 74 – 67 UL |
| Dec 19, 2025 | USM 62 – 54 UL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UL 62 – 60 USM |
| Jan 26, 2025 | USM 67 – 59 UL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UL 77 – 61 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-0 |
| Away | 8-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#79) | 5.0 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#48) | 1.59 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#54) | 2.08 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#27) | 0.587 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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