Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -125 STET +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | STET -0.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -1.0 (-2.0) | 135.3 (+1.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -0.3 (-2.7) | 133.6 (+3.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -0.5 (-2.5) | 137.6 (-0.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -0.3 (-2.7) | 137.7 (-0.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#228) | 0.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#166) | 0.43 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#176) | 0.51 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#144) | 0.534 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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