Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | IDST +160 MONT -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -0.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -0.0 (-8.0) | 137.4 (-7.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -0.5 (-7.5) | 136.7 (-6.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.1 (-8.1) | 137.7 (-7.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -0.3 (-7.7) | 138.7 (-8.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#247) | -0.4 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#291) | -0.30 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#255) | -0.17 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#302) | 0.490 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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