Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -150 USA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -4.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.9 (+0.1) | 138.6 (-20.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.9 (+0.1) | 136.0 (-18.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -3.0 (+1.0) | 137.3 (-19.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.7 (+0.3) | 139.2 (-21.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#128) | 1.1 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#163) | -0.42 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#151) | -0.41 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#147) | 0.495 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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