Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UIW -188 HCU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -6.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -4.1 (-10.1) | 149.7 (+12.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -4.5 (-10.5) | 149.9 (+12.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -5.1 (-11.1) | 150.8 (+11.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -5.2 (-11.2) | 150.4 (+11.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 85.0 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#345) | -15.1 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#319) | -2.60 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#334) | -3.07 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#334) | 0.379 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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