In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–14 on winners spread MAE 7.4 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas State @ Texas Tech -1.6 145.7 44% 63–71 ✗
Louisville @ Miami +18.2 148.8 91% 85–93 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -2.6 138.6 37% 70–68 ✓
Tulsa @ UCF +15.1 144.4 88% 52–96 ✓
South Florida @ Cincinnati +11.4 149.3 85% 65–84 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lehigh +6.6 136.1 76% 91–82 ✗
Illinois State @ Valparaiso +1.8 141.5 57% 76–81 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +2.9 140.2 65% 81–93 ✓
Columbia @ Yale +20.3 142.7 91% 68–99 ✓
Rice @ Florida International +1.4 150.4 58% 85–78 ✗
Sam Houston @ Abilene Christian -3.9 138.8 31% 77–62 ✓
Longwood @ High Point -5.4 143.4 29% 70–67 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara +3.6 151.7 68% 69–71 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +9.9 145.2 86% 67–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay -12.1 144.1 15% 76–71 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +5.3 153.5 72% 77–80 ✓
Northeastern @ UNC Wilmington +8.6 132.9 82% 59–71 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Liberty +12.5 137.1 86% 73–83 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley -3.3 151.5 35% 82–72 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan -9.5 165.1 17% 70–63 ✓
Arizona @ Stanford -7.1 152.1 24% 79–88 ✗
Arizona State @ California -8.5 129.0 20% 70–62 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +1.2 131.0 54% 54–58 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +13.1 136.5 87% 63–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +6.5 152.2 75% 83–90 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas +4.4 138.0 70% 43–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +3.0 144.4 65% 54–70 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho State -3.4 138.8 30% 58–52 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -1.3 148.9 48% 70–80 ✗
Texas A&M @ LSU -3.8 138.5 35% 74–62 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech +2.1 142.8 63% 75–71 ✗
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana +7.0 145.2 77% 64–74 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +0.7 133.4 54% 74–69 ✗
UCLA @ Oregon -1.5 135.8 41% 70–63 ✓
BYU @ Gonzaga +11.4 156.9 85% 81–88 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +4.4 134.7 70% 62–73 ✓
Utah State @ San José State -1.9 144.9 42% 64–69 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U +2.1 141.2 61% 58–63 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco +7.0 159.4 78% 80–88 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +3.3 162.2 68% 94–99 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield -3.4 144.3 36% 79–69 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara +5.7 139.2 76% 74–84 ✓
Washington @ Washington State +6.1 137.7 72% 51–56 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +7.1 141.9 77% 64–83 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +2.1 129.9 64% 52–51 ✗
Temple @ Memphis +10.5 150.3 84% 77–86 ✓
Iona @ Niagara -5.5 132.8 31% 72–55 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Canisius -5.8 146.2 27% 65–85 ✗
Iowa @ Minnesota -11.0 147.2 16% 68–56 ✓
Michigan State @ Ohio State +4.2 136.4 65% 62–41 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +13.8 133.4 87% 47–86 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.0 137.8 68% 71–64 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State -1.1 148.9 46% 78–81 ✗
Purdue @ Northwestern -2.9 131.5 37% 58–64 ✗
Missouri State @ Evansville -8.5 131.4 18% 66–60 ✓
Marist @ Siena +10.3 131.2 85% 65–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan +1.4 130.8 58% 52–68 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield +4.1 128.6 65% 72–76 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +10.3 136.7 84% 89–97 ✓
SMU @ Wichita State +6.6 143.0 76% 89–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.