Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | OSU -188 MSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +21 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | OSU -5.5 (-26.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -4.1 (-25.1) | 136.7 (-33.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -4.8 (-25.8) | 133.7 (-30.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -4.2 (-25.2) | 136.4 (-33.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -4.1 (-25.1) | 136.0 (-33.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSU 66 – 60 OSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MSU 69 – 62 OSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | OSU 60 – 57 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | OSU 68 – 58 MSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MSU 84 – 78 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#31) | 9.9 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#105) | 2.03 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#78) | 2.44 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#157) | 0.589 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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