Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -4.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -5.9 (+0.1) | 144.5 (+17.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -5.0 (+1.0) | 141.0 (+21.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.3 (-0.3) | 143.9 (+18.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -6.1 (-0.1) | 146.2 (+15.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSU 66 – 60 OSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MSU 69 – 62 OSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | OSU 60 – 57 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | OSU 68 – 58 MSU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MSU 62 – 41 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#35) | 10.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#31) | 0.86 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#29) | 1.50 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#37) | 0.503 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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