Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -225 UML +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +12 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -3.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -3.4 (+8.6) | 139.8 (+34.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -5.0 (+7.0) | 139.1 (+34.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -2.9 (+9.1) | 140.2 (+33.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -3.3 (+8.7) | 141.0 (+33.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVM 66 – 64 UML |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UVM 85 – 61 UML |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UVM 67 – 63 UML |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UVM 66 – 61 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 17-0 |
| Away | 9-6 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#128) | 2.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#138) | 0.22 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#144) | 0.28 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#78) | 0.526 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 19.7% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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