Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNA +130 LIP -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -2.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -1.7 (+11.7) | 151.1 (-1.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -2.7 (+12.7) | 149.1 (+0.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -1.3 (+11.3) | 148.9 (+1.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -1.5 (+11.5) | 150.4 (-0.4) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LIP 73 – 51 UNA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | LIP 76 – 65 UNA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LIP 75 – 63 UNA |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 LIP |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNA 77 – 75 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#279) | -0.2 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#174) | 0.01 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#217) | -0.00 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#198) | 0.506 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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