Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UNA -110 LIP -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -3.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -1.4 (+11.4) | 143.4 (-5.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -1.6 (+11.6) | 142.9 (-4.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -1.8 (+11.8) | 144.6 (-6.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -1.2 (+11.2) | 144.9 (-6.9) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LIP 73 – 51 UNA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | LIP 76 – 65 UNA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LIP 75 – 63 UNA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNA 77 – 75 LIP |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UNA 75 – 70 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#133) | 8.4 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#183) | 0.83 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#164) | 1.48 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#191) | 0.532 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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