Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UNA +110 LIP -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -0.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -1.1 (+3.9) | 157.2 (-12.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -0.7 (+5.7) | 155.1 (-10.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -0.7 (+4.3) | 155.7 (-10.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -0.7 (+4.3) | 155.6 (-10.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LIP 73 – 51 UNA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | LIP 76 – 65 UNA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LIP 75 – 63 UNA |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 LIP |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNA 77 – 75 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 11-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-13 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#246) | -0.5 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#236) | 0.27 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#234) | 0.12 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#243) | 0.512 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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