Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -8000 LOU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -23.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -20.5 (-12.5) | 147.8 (+30.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -16.8 (-8.8) | 147.0 (+31.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -18.2 (-10.2) | 148.8 (+29.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -20.8 (-12.8) | 149.4 (+28.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | MIA 78 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2026 | LOU 92 – 89 MIA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LOU 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LOU 80 – 71 MIA |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MIA 80 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 2-18 |
| Home | 16-1 | 4-13 |
| Away | 7-4 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#39) | -9.1 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#13) | -2.03 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#18) | -1.74 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#19) | 0.419 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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