Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +500 MIA -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +27 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -12.1 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -14.5 (-12.5) | 136.1 (-3.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -14.7 (-12.3) | 136.3 (-3.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -11.9 (-15.1) | 136.4 (-3.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -14.7 (-12.3) | 135.8 (-2.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | MIA 78 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2026 | LOU 92 – 89 MIA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LOU 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LOU 80 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MIA 93 – 85 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 15-5 |
| Home | 4-13 | 16-1 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#346) | 5.4 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.35 (#362) | 2.72 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.50 (#358) | 3.95 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#319) | 0.614 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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