Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Under |
| Money | MIA -1700 LOU +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +9 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -20.8 (-29.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -19.6 (-28.6) | 157.4 (-6.4) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -16.8 (-25.8) | 154.7 (-3.7) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -18.7 (-27.7) | 155.6 (-4.6) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -18.9 (-27.9) | 155.8 (-4.8) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | MIA 78 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2026 | LOU 92 – 89 MIA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LOU 88 – 78 MIA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MIA 93 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MIA 80 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-11 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L10 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#36) | -4.8 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#30) | -1.60 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#33) | -1.88 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#25) | 0.416 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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