Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +102 LOU -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -5.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -2.5 (+7.5) | 150.4 (+0.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -4.9 (+9.9) | 151.0 (-0.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -3.1 (+8.1) | 149.6 (+1.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -3.0 (+8.0) | 150.0 (+1.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LOU 92 – 89 MIA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LOU 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LOU 80 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MIA 93 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MIA 80 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#30) | 20.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#28) | 2.86 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#27) | 3.62 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#45) | 0.602 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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