Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -3000 MIA +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -20.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -14.1 (-4.1) | 154.7 (+11.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -17.6 (-7.6) | 156.7 (+9.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -19.3 (-9.3) | 157.0 (+9.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -19.1 (-9.1) | 154.1 (+11.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | MIA 78 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2026 | LOU 92 – 89 MIA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LOU 80 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MIA 93 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MIA 80 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-10 |
| Away | 9-2 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#27) | -1.8 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#24) | -1.36 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#27) | -1.29 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#16) | 0.441 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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