Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -125 LOU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +3 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -2.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.8 (-3.8) | 154.0 (+27.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.8 (-2.2) | 154.9 (+26.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.5 (-4.5) | 151.1 (+29.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.0 (-4.0) | 155.0 (+26.0) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | MIA 78 – 73 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LOU 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LOU 80 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MIA 93 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MIA 80 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#29) | 20.9 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#26) | 2.69 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#24) | 3.52 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#39) | 0.594 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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