Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | IDST +260 MTST -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +6 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -4.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.3 (-1.7) | 139.1 (-29.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.0 (-1.0) | 136.5 (-26.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -3.4 (-2.6) | 138.8 (-28.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.0 (-2.0) | 139.4 (-29.4) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-12 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#249) | 3.4 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#293) | 0.58 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#258) | 0.71 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#310) | 0.543 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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