Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | HPU +275 LONG -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -6.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -6.2 (+3.2) | 145.0 (-8.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -7.1 (+4.1) | 142.3 (-5.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -5.4 (+2.4) | 143.4 (-6.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -6.2 (+3.2) | 143.8 (-6.8) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#315) | 1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#280) | -0.34 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#289) | -0.38 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#288) | 0.495 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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