Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -500 SDAK +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -12.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -9.6 (-4.6) | 145.9 (-6.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -10.4 (-5.4) | 144.8 (-5.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -9.9 (-4.9) | 145.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -9.7 (-4.7) | 146.3 (-7.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#178) | -9.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#133) | -0.79 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#168) | -1.18 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#82) | 0.458 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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