Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -175 CSUF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +1 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -4.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -3.5 (-4.5) | 131.5 (-28.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -2.5 (-3.5) | 131.3 (-28.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -2.1 (-3.1) | 129.9 (-26.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -2.9 (-3.9) | 130.6 (-27.6) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HAW 78 – 63 CSUF |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HAW 87 – 85 CSUF |
| Dec 7, 2025 | HAW 69 – 59 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | HAW 82 – 57 CSUF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HAW 95 – 86 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#133) | 1.6 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#128) | -0.09 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#110) | -0.03 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#153) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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