Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -5.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -4.4 (-5.6) | 151.2 (+2.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -5.0 (-5.0) | 149.3 (+4.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -3.3 (-6.7) | 151.5 (+2.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -3.7 (-6.3) | 151.9 (+2.1) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#266) | 2.9 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#230) | 0.48 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#239) | 0.47 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#224) | 0.534 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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