Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTU -133 TAR +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UTU -4.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -2.3 (-6.3) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -2.0 (-6.0) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -2.1 (-6.1) | 142.8 (+3.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -1.9 (-5.9) | 144.1 (+1.9) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#169) | -0.9 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#205) | 0.20 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#192) | 0.22 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#218) | 0.516 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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