Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | MAN -120 SPU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +16 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -2.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -1.0 (+15.0) | 128.8 (-8.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -0.5 (+15.5) | 126.5 (-6.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -1.4 (+14.6) | 130.8 (-10.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -1.2 (+14.8) | 131.4 (-11.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#309) | -7.5 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#305) | -1.36 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#316) | -1.63 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#296) | 0.446 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 37.8% |
Game Analysis
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