Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +140 AAMU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -2.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -2.8 (+0.8) | 137.4 (+0.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -2.9 (+0.9) | 136.3 (+1.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -2.6 (+0.6) | 138.6 (-0.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -2.8 (+0.8) | 139.6 (-1.6) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AAMU 72 – 65 MVSU |
| Jan 6, 2026 | AAMU 71 – 51 MVSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | AAMU 82 – 70 MVSU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | AAMU 79 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | AAMU 80 – 57 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 1-19 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -15.4 (#359) | -9.8 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#355) | -2.02 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#354) | -2.51 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#355) | 0.383 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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