Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -275 UCD +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -6.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -5.9 (+4.1) | 138.5 (+19.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.5 (+4.5) | 136.1 (+21.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -5.7 (+4.3) | 139.2 (+18.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -5.5 (+4.5) | 139.4 (+18.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#100) | 1.4 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#73) | -0.00 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#76) | 0.24 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#93) | 0.502 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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