Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | PAC -133 USD +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +5 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -4.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (+28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -2.8 (+2.2) | 160.9 (+32.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -2.3 (+2.7) | 160.0 (+33.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -3.3 (+1.7) | 162.2 (+30.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -3.0 (+2.0) | 162.6 (+30.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PAC 77 – 70 USD |
| Dec 28, 2025 | USD 66 – 54 PAC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USD 81 – 77 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | PAC 71 – 69 USD |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USD 75 – 65 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-12 |
| Home | 7-10 | 8-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#199) | -2.2 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#204) | -0.61 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#190) | -0.44 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#254) | 0.464 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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