Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -1600 TLSA +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +44 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -18.3 (+25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -15.4 (+28.6) | 144.4 (+3.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -15.1 (+28.9) | 144.4 (+3.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -15.3 (+28.7) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -15.3 (+28.7) | 145.3 (+2.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UCF 88 – 75 TLSA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | UCF 68 – 49 TLSA |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TLSA 73 – 72 UCF |
| Feb 15, 2022 | UCF 76 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 3, 2021 | UCF 73 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#68) | -6.5 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#78) | -1.50 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#75) | -1.64 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#72) | 0.421 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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