Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -150 TLSA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -3.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.4 (+1.6) | 131.0 (+11.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -3.1 (+0.9) | 130.8 (+11.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -3.1 (+0.9) | 131.2 (+10.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -2.8 (+1.2) | 129.9 (+12.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UCF 88 – 75 TLSA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | UCF 68 – 49 TLSA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UCF 96 – 52 TLSA |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TLSA 73 – 72 UCF |
| Feb 15, 2022 | UCF 76 – 67 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#110) | 3.4 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#80) | 0.92 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#77) | 0.99 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#85) | 0.506 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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