Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -8.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -8.4 (+0.6) | 138.7 (+4.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -7.9 (+1.1) | 140.6 (+2.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -7.7 (+1.3) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -7.5 (+1.5) | 139.1 (+3.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UCF 88 – 75 TLSA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | UCF 68 – 49 TLSA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UCF 96 – 52 TLSA |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TLSA 73 – 72 UCF |
| Mar 3, 2021 | UCF 73 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#93) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#82) | -0.61 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#79) | -0.35 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#84) | 0.440 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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