Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -700 TLSA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +13 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -11.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -10.2 (+2.8) | 149.1 (+13.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -8.9 (+4.1) | 145.2 (+17.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -8.9 (+4.1) | 146.0 (+17.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -9.0 (+4.0) | 149.2 (+13.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2023 | UCF 68 – 49 TLSA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UCF 96 – 52 TLSA |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TLSA 73 – 72 UCF |
| Feb 15, 2022 | UCF 76 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 3, 2021 | UCF 73 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-5 | 8-9 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#116) | -8.6 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#53) | -1.49 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#57) | -1.59 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#38) | 0.397 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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