Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -2.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.7 (+3.7) | 136.0 (+9.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -2.8 (+3.8) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -2.5 (+3.5) | 138.0 (+7.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -2.6 (+3.6) | 137.7 (+7.3) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UCF 88 – 75 TLSA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | UCF 68 – 49 TLSA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UCF 96 – 52 TLSA |
| Feb 15, 2022 | UCF 76 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 3, 2021 | UCF 73 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#157) | 5.4 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#229) | 1.26 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#203) | 1.55 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#290) | 0.539 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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