Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +650 UCF -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +19 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -13.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -13.9 (-5.1) | 138.8 (-21.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.8 (-6.2) | 141.3 (-24.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -13.0 (-6.0) | 142.5 (-25.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -12.8 (-6.2) | 141.2 (-24.2) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UCF 88 – 75 TLSA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UCF 96 – 52 TLSA |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TLSA 73 – 72 UCF |
| Feb 15, 2022 | UCF 76 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 3, 2021 | UCF 73 – 69 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-10 | 11-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#315) | 8.6 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#324) | 0.83 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#306) | 1.19 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#332) | 0.532 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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