Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | NU +170 PUR -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -3.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.4 (+8.4) | 132.4 (-10.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -2.9 (+8.9) | 131.5 (-9.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.8 (+7.8) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.9 (+7.9) | 131.3 (-9.3) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | PUR 81 – 68 NU |
| Mar 5, 2026 | PUR 70 – 66 NU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PUR 79 – 61 NU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PUR 105 – 96 NU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NU 92 – 88 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#48) | 16.7 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#46) | 3.75 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#51) | 4.96 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#68) | 0.642 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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