Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -290 NU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -6.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.3 (+12.7) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.7 (+11.3) | 139.4 (+0.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.5 (+11.5) | 140.3 (-0.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -6.0 (+12.0) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | PUR 81 – 68 NU |
| Mar 5, 2026 | PUR 70 – 66 NU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PUR 105 – 96 NU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NU 92 – 88 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2023 | NU 64 – 58 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#33) | 11.6 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#24) | 1.69 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#24) | 2.74 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#6) | 0.594 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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