Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | NU +215 PUR -267 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +4 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+38.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.0 (+10.0) | 138.4 (+41.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -4.4 (+8.4) | 129.8 (+50.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.9 (+9.9) | 137.7 (+42.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.2 (+11.2) | 139.2 (+40.8) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | PUR 81 – 68 NU |
| Mar 5, 2026 | PUR 70 – 66 NU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PUR 79 – 61 NU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PUR 105 – 96 NU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | NU 64 – 58 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#102) | 20.6 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#31) | 4.69 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#31) | 7.25 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#10) | 0.738 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 42.8% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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