Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -1600 NU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +9 | 201 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -17.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+53.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -14.0 (-5.0) | 149.9 (+51.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -14.2 (-5.2) | 146.4 (+54.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -14.9 (-5.9) | 149.1 (+51.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -14.0 (-5.0) | 151.9 (+49.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | PUR 81 – 68 NU |
| Mar 5, 2026 | PUR 70 – 66 NU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PUR 79 – 61 NU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NU 92 – 88 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2023 | NU 64 – 58 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 22.7 (#2) | 8.8 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#1) | 2.23 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#2) | 2.88 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.695 (#1) | 0.591 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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