Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NU +390 PUR -520 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -9.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.7 (+2.7) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.5 (+2.5) | 143.7 (-7.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.5 (+3.5) | 144.6 (-8.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -8.4 (+4.4) | 143.4 (-7.4) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | PUR 81 – 68 NU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PUR 79 – 61 NU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PUR 105 – 96 NU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NU 92 – 88 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2023 | NU 64 – 58 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-8 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#66) | 21.8 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#90) | 3.29 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#91) | 4.26 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#132) | 0.624 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.97 | 2.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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