Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -1000 NU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -11.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.8 (+1.2) | 138.3 (+10.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -10.2 (+2.8) | 139.8 (+9.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.0 (+3.0) | 141.7 (+7.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -10.3 (+2.7) | 141.1 (+7.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | PUR 70 – 66 NU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PUR 79 – 61 NU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PUR 105 – 96 NU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NU 92 – 88 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2023 | NU 64 – 58 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#9) | 9.8 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#18) | 1.18 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.15 (#15) | 1.60 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#22) | 0.524 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.16 | 2.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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