Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +150 MCN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -1.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -3.5 (+2.5) | 143.9 (+13.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -1.3 (+0.3) | 141.9 (+15.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -1.6 (+0.6) | 144.6 (+12.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -1.6 (+0.6) | 146.1 (+10.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-9 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -15.1 (#358) | -10.4 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#358) | -2.23 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.29 (#358) | -2.82 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#353) | 0.441 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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